Florida vs Texas Prediction and Odds: Week 7 2026

This week's odds: College football Week 11 odds and line moves and our College Football Playoff predictions.

Texas lost its No. 1 ranking on the last play in Dallas, and now it has to turn around and face a Florida team that has lost two straight. No. 7 Texas is a 10.5- to 11.5-point favorite over Florida in Austin, as of Friday night, October 16, 2026, up from -9.5 at the open, with the total down to 51.5 from 52.5. Florida quarterback Aaron Philo is questionable with a shoulder injury. Turn the DraftKings numbers into a score and the betting market's Florida vs Texas prediction is Texas 31.5, Florida 20.

Florida vs Texas odds at every book

Four of the seven books have moved Texas to -11.5, while BetMGM, FanDuel and Fanatics still hang -10.5, as of Friday night, October 16, 2026. Five books share the longest Florida moneyline at +340, and the total is 51.5 everywhere except Fanatics at 51. The spread was checked against ScoresAndOdds. Compare where you have accounts on our sportsbooks page.

Florida vs Texas prediction from the betting odds

Texas opened -9.5 and has moved to -10.5 or -11.5 depending on the book, even after losing a game it was favored to win. The market did not mark Texas down for a three-point loss in which it outgained Oklahoma 382 to 238, and it has moved toward the Longhorns since. The move took the line through 10, one of the more common final margins in football: a 10- or 11-point Texas win now loses for anyone laying the current number, where it would have covered at the opener. The total has gone the other way, from 52.5 at the open to 51.5, with Florida unsure who will start at quarterback.

How Florida and Texas got here

Texas is 4-1 and fell from No. 1 to No. 7 after a 27-24 loss to Oklahoma on Saturday, decided by Tate Sandell's 47-yard field goal on the final play. Florida started 4-0 under first-year coach Jon Sumrall, then lost 45-17 at Missouri and 38-19 at home to South Carolina and dropped out of the AP poll.

Florida: the passing game is there, the defense is not

Florida has given up 83 points in its last two games. Bailey Stockton caught 8 passes for 127 yards and a 59-yard touchdown against South Carolina, and Jadan Baugh ran 15 times for 59 yards and a score, but the defense could not keep pace. Receiver Vernell Brown III sat out the South Carolina loss with a knee injury.

Texas: Manning after the Red River loss

Arch Manning went 19 of 31 for about 260 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions against Oklahoma, and Cam Coleman caught 5 passes for 110 yards and a touchdown. The yardage edge was big, the turnovers were the difference, and Texas comes home with a week to clean it up.

Florida and Texas injury report

Florida's Friday SEC availability report, released October 16, had no changes from Thursday. Quarterback Aaron Philo (shoulder) and receivers Vernell Brown III (knee) and Bailey Stockton (back) are questionable, and running back Duke Clark (ankle) is out. If Philo cannot play, sophomore Tramell Jones Jr. would make his first career start, and a final decision is expected Saturday morning. Texas has receiver Kaliq Lockett and offensive lineman Jaydon Chatman out, with defensive lineman Justus Terry and offensive lineman Jordan Coleman probable. With Florida's starting quarterback unresolved, this page stays a read of the market, not a lean.

Florida vs Texas series history

Texas leads the all-time series 3-1-1. These teams met in each of the last two seasons: Texas won 49-17 in Austin in 2024, and Florida won 29-21 in Gainesville last October.

Florida vs Texas questions