CFP Predictions 2026-27: Georgia, Notre Dame, Miami and Alabama Get the Byes After Week 10
Our CFP predictions after Week 10 put Georgia, Notre Dame, Miami and Alabama in the four first-round byes, built from Kalshi's make-the-playoff and conference title prices as of Sunday morning, November 8, 2026. Indiana, Utah, UCLA and Texas host first-round games, with Wake Forest, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Boise State on the road.
Texas Tech, Iowa, Oregon and New Mexico are the first four out. This is a market-based bracket, not the committee's. The second official CFP rankings came out Tuesday, November 10, with Georgia at No. 1, and they are compared with our seeds below.
Projected conference champions: Georgia (SEC), Miami (ACC), Indiana (Big Ten), Utah (Big 12) and Boise State (top Group of Six champion). Every seed comes from prices as of Sunday morning, November 8, 2026.
CFP predictions 2026-27: our market-based 12-team field
We seed the field as the committee would if it ranked teams by their market chance of making the playoff. Kalshi's make-the-playoff prices (bid and ask midpoint) order the teams, Kalshi's conference title markets pick the five automatic bids, and the national title odds break ties.
Under the 2026 format, the four power-conference champions and the highest-ranked Group of Six champion get automatic bids, and seven at-large teams fill the field. Seeding is straight, so a conference champion is not promised a bye. Notre Dame gets in as an at-large if it is ranked in the top 12 on Selection Day.
One adjustment: Boise State's 57 to 60 cents would rank ninth by price alone, but a Group of Six champion has never been seeded above 12th, so we hold the Broncos at 12 and note the gap. Miami and Alabama are within a cent of each other, and Miami takes the 3 seed as the ACC champion.
| Seed | Team | Record | Make CFP | Title | How they get in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | 8-1 | 98 to 100¢ | 27 to 29¢ | SEC champion (54 to 56% on Kalshi) |
| 2 | Notre Dame | 8-1 | 94 to 95¢ | 17 to 19¢ | At-large |
| 3 | Miami (FL) | 8-1 | 91 to 95¢ | 9 to 10¢ | ACC champion (61 to 64%) |
| 4 | Alabama | 7-2 | 92 to 93¢ | 10 to 11¢ | At-large |
| 5 | Indiana | 8-1 | 86 to 87¢ | 8 to 9¢ | Big Ten champion (43 to 45%) |
| 6 | Utah | 9-0 | 83 to 84¢ | 3 to 4¢ | Big 12 champion (47 to 48%) |
| 7 | UCLA | 9-0 | 73 to 75¢ | 3 to 4¢ | At-large |
| 8 | Texas | 7-2 | 71 to 74¢ | 9 to 10¢ | At-large |
| 9 | Wake Forest | 8-1 | 45 to 52¢ | 0 to 2¢ | At-large |
| 10 | Tennessee | 7-2 | 44 to 48¢ | 1 to 2¢ | At-large |
| 11 | Ole Miss | 6-3 | 34 to 36¢ | 1 to 2¢ | At-large |
| 12 | Boise State | 8-1 | 57 to 60¢ | under 1¢ | Group of Six champion (Pac-12, 65 to 66%) |
You can follow the live Kalshi make-the-playoff market, and our free plays for the week are on the free picks page.
CFP first-round predictions
First-round games are played on the higher seed's campus on Friday, December 18, and Saturday, December 19. Based on Sunday's prices, these would be the four games:
| Game | Site | Winner plays |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Boise State at 5 Indiana | Bloomington | 4 Alabama in the quarterfinals |
| 11 Ole Miss at 6 Utah | Salt Lake City | 3 Miami (FL) |
| 10 Tennessee at 7 UCLA | Pasadena | 2 Notre Dame |
| 9 Wake Forest at 8 Texas | Austin | 1 Georgia |
The quarterfinals are the Fiesta Bowl on Wednesday, December 30, and the Cotton, Rose and Peach Bowls on New Year's Day; which bowl hosts which game is set on Selection Day, Sunday, December 6.
The semifinals are the Orange Bowl on January 14 and the Sugar Bowl on January 15, and the title game is January 25, 2027, in Las Vegas.
Title prices for every team are on our national championship odds page.
The committee's CFP rankings vs our market seeds
The selection committee released its second rankings on Tuesday, November 10. Georgia moved up to No. 1, followed by Utah, Alabama and UCLA, and Miami fell from first to seventh after its loss at Notre Dame. The table shows the committee's top 12 next to our market seeds from November 8.
| CFP rank, Nov. 10 | Team | Record | Our seed, Nov. 8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | 8-1 | 1 |
| 2 | Utah | 9-0 | 6 |
| 3 | Alabama | 7-2 | 4 |
| 4 | UCLA | 9-0 | 7 |
| 5 | Notre Dame | 8-1 | 2 |
| 6 | Texas | 7-2 | 8 |
| 7 | Miami (FL) | 8-1 | 3 |
| 8 | Tennessee | 7-2 | 10 |
| 9 | Indiana | 8-1 | 5 |
| 10 | BYU | 7-2 | out (22 to 23¢) |
| 11 | Kentucky | 7-2 | out (25 to 29¢) |
| 12 | Texas Tech | 8-1 | out (27 to 34¢) |
On these rankings the byes go to Georgia, Utah, Alabama and UCLA. The first round would be Boise State at Notre Dame, Kentucky at Texas, BYU at Miami and Indiana at Tennessee, with No. 24 Boise State taking the last spot as the top Group of Six champion. Wake Forest is 13th.
CFP rankings prediction: how our November 10 projection did
We projected the committee's top 12 on Monday morning, November 9, from the first rankings and the Week 10 results. Here is that projection next to what the committee released on Tuesday night.
| Our projection | Team | Record | Actual rank | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | 8-1 | 1 | Exact |
| 2 | Utah | 9-0 | 2 | Exact |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 8-1 | 5 | 2 too high |
| 4 | UCLA | 9-0 | 4 | Exact |
| 5 | Indiana | 8-1 | 9 | 4 too high |
| 6 | Miami (FL) | 8-1 | 7 | 1 too high |
| 7 | Alabama | 7-2 | 3 | 4 too low |
| 8 | Texas | 7-2 | 6 | 2 too low |
| 9 | Tennessee | 7-2 | 8 | 1 too low |
| 10 | Texas Tech | 8-1 | 12 | 2 too high |
| 11 | Wake Forest | 8-1 | 13 | 2 too high |
| 12 | BYU | 7-2 | 10 | 2 too low |
We had three spots exactly right (Georgia, Utah and UCLA) and 11 of the 12 teams. The miss was Kentucky, which the committee kept at 11th after its 34-6 loss at Tennessee. We had the Wildcats 13th and Wake Forest in the field.
The biggest misses were Alabama and Indiana. The committee moved two-loss Alabama up to third after its 31-13 win at LSU, and dropped idle Indiana from fourth to ninth. We had them seventh and fifth.
The third rankings come out Tuesday, November 17. The conference races that decide the automatic bids are on our SEC and Big Ten championship odds page.
How our CFP predictions compare with the experts after Week 10
Brad Crawford's CBS Sports bowl projections went up late Saturday night, November 7, after the Notre Dame win, and Barry Werner's USA Today projected CFP rankings came out Sunday morning, November 8. All three have Georgia first and Texas eighth. They split on Utah, Notre Dame and the last three spots.
| Team | Our market seed | CBS (Crawford) | USA Today (Werner) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Notre Dame | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Miami (FL) | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| Alabama | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| Indiana | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Utah | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| UCLA | 7 | 7 | 5 |
| Texas | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Wake Forest | 9 | out | 10 |
| Tennessee | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Ole Miss | 11 | out | out |
| Boise State | 12 | 12 | out |
| Kentucky | out | 10 | out |
| BYU | out | 11 | out |
| USC | out | out | 11 |
| Texas Tech | out | out | 12 |
The biggest gap is Utah. CBS and USA Today both put the unbeaten Utes second, while the market has them sixth at 83 to 84 cents, below three two-loss or one-loss teams with higher title prices.
Kentucky and BYU are the reverse: CBS keeps both in at 10 and 11, but Kalshi has them at 22 to 29 cents to make the field.
Tennessee, which beat Kentucky 34-6, is in all three fields. Wake Forest, 8-1 after a 77-0 win over Merrimack, is in ours and USA Today's but out of CBS's. Our bowl projections 2026-27 page has Crawford's full 47-game list.
What changed in the CFP picture in Week 10
Miami's 31-24 loss at Notre Dame was the largest move at the top: Miami fell from the 1 seed to the 3 seed, and Notre Dame rose from the 4 seed to the 2 seed at 94 to 95 cents. Alabama's 31-13 win at LSU moved it from the 6 seed to the 4 seed and a bye.
Ohio State's Kalshi price to make the field fell from 53 to 57 cents to 13 to 14 cents after the Oregon loss, and LSU's fell from 53 to 55 cents to 25 to 26 cents. Both are out. Tennessee (30 to 44 to 48 cents) and Wake Forest (46 to 45 to 52 cents) took the open spots.
Utah beat BYU 28-20 and UCLA beat Minnesota 34-20, so they remain the only unbeaten FBS teams. Boise State beat Colorado State 64-38 and moved to 57 to 60 cents, well ahead of New Mexico (27 to 29 cents) for the Group of Six bid. The Week 11 lines are in our Week 11 preview.