Patriots vs Lions Prediction and Odds: Lions -2.5 in Munich
The Detroit Lions are 2.5-point favorites over the New England Patriots at six books on SportsbookReview as of early Saturday, November 14, 2026, with the total at 49.5. That points to about Lions 26, Patriots 23.5. Kickoff is Sunday at 9:30 AM ET on FOX from FC Bayern Munich Stadium, with Detroit the designated home team.
The line opened at Detroit -1.5 and has moved a point toward the Lions, with 74% of spread tickets on Detroit. A.J. Brown and Rhamondre Stevenson are questionable for New England, and Detroit has ruled out safety Kerby Joseph, cornerback D.J. Reed and center Cade Mays.
Patriots vs Lions odds at every book
| Book | Spread | Moneyline (NE / DET) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | DET -2.5 (-118) | +125 / -150 | 49.5 |
| bet365 | DET -2.5 (-118) | +127 / -152 | 49.5 |
| FanDuel | DET -2.5 (-120) | +128 / -152 | 49.5 |
| Fanatics | DET -2.5 (-120) | +125 / -150 | 49.5 |
| BetRivers | DET -2.5 (-122) | +130 / -162 | 50.5 |
| Caesars | DET -2.5 (-119) | +130 / -154 | 49.5 |
We left DraftKings out of the table because its NFL column on SportsbookReview has been stale at times this season. Every remaining book has Detroit at -2.5, priced from -118 to -122, which leaves room for a move to -3.
The total opened at 48.5, reached 50.5 at some books on Friday and sits at 49.5 at most books now, with BetRivers alone at 50.5, even though 62% of total tickets are on the Over. Lines move, so check the number before you bet.
Patriots vs Lions prediction from the odds
That gives the market's prediction as Lions 26, Patriots 23.5. A neutral site takes most of the usual home edge off the board, which is part of why the spread is this short.
| Source | Margin | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Market | Lions by 2.5 | 49.5 |
| Prediction Tracker median | Lions by 1 (std dev 3.0) | Not listed |
| Massey Ratings | Lions 24, Patriots 21 | 45 |
Massey sits on the Detroit side of the line at three points, while the tracker median is a point and a half below it. When the two systems split like that, we pass. Massey's 45-point total is well under the market's 49.5, but one system is not enough for a total.
How the Patriots and Lions got here
New England is 5-4 after a 45-27 loss at Green Bay, where Maye threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns with three interceptions, per Squawka. Maye has accounted for three or more touchdowns in six straight games, per the Patriots' game preview.
Detroit is 6-2. Goff went 17 of 25 for 170 yards last week and has a 106.4 rating with 15 touchdowns and 2 interceptions this season, per Squawka.
Patriots vs Lions injury report
| Player | Team | Status |
|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown, WR | Patriots | Questionable (ankle, knee); limited all week |
| Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | Patriots | Questionable (knee) |
| TreVeyon Henderson, RB | Patriots | Out (illness) |
| Carlton Davis III, CB | Patriots | Out (knee) |
| Ben Brown, C | Patriots | Out (knee) |
| Kerby Joseph, S | Lions | Out (knee) |
| D.J. Reed, CB | Lions | Out (hip) |
| Cade Mays, C | Lions | Out (ankle) |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | Lions | Questionable (rib) |
These are the final designations from Friday, per the Patriots' official injury report. Drake Maye practiced fully and has no designation, per ClutchPoints. With Henderson out and Stevenson questionable, New England could be thin at running back, and both teams are missing a starting center.
No lean on this game.
Our projection is Lions by about 2, between the tracker's 1 and Massey's 3. That is within a point of the line, so there is no lean.
Situation: both teams fly to Germany for a morning kickoff, and the Patriots left a day early, per the Boston Globe. Neither side gets a home crowd edge.
We may also have a premium play on this game. A lean here is our editorial read of the market and can differ from the premium pick. Our free plays are on the free picks page, and our full card is on premium picks.
For every Week 10 game, see our NFL Week 10 preview. Other games we broke down this week: Vikings vs Packers, Chiefs vs Falcons, Steelers vs Bengals on Sunday night and Chargers vs Ravens on Monday night.