Chiefs vs Falcons Prediction and Odds: Chiefs -3.5 in Atlanta
The Kansas City Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites over the Atlanta Falcons at five of six books on SportsbookReview as of early Saturday, November 14, 2026, with the total at 47 to 47.5. That points to about Chiefs 25.5, Falcons 22. Kickoff is Sunday at 1:00 PM ET on CBS from Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Patrick Mahomes practiced fully on Friday and carries no game designation, per the Chiefs' official injury report, after hurting his elbow against the Jets. Atlanta has ruled out receiver Zachariah Branch and lists linebacker Divine Deablo as doubtful.
Chiefs vs Falcons odds at every book
| Book | Spread | Moneyline (KC / ATL) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | KC -3.5 (-105) | -175 / +145 | 47 |
| bet365 | KC -3.5 (+100) | -167 / +142 | 47.5 |
| FanDuel | KC -3.5 (+100) | -172 / +144 | 47.5 |
| Fanatics | KC -3.5 (+105) | -175 / +145 | 47 |
| BetRivers | Not posted | -186 / +155 | 47 |
| Caesars | KC -3.5 (-112) | -182 / +153 | 47.5 |
We left DraftKings out of the table because its NFL column on SportsbookReview has been stale at times this season. BetRivers showed a stray pick'em spread, which we treat as not posted. The rest have Kansas City -3.5 at prices from +105 to -112, so the market sits between 3 and 3.5.
bet365 has the cheapest Chiefs moneyline at -167, and BetRivers the best Falcons price at +155. The line opened at -3 and 69% of spread tickets are on Kansas City. Lines move, so check the number before you bet.
Chiefs vs Falcons prediction from the odds
That gives the market's prediction as Chiefs 25.5, Falcons 22. The move from -3 to -3.5 came after the positive report on Mahomes' elbow, per SI.
| Source | Margin | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Market | Chiefs by 3.5 | 47 to 47.5 |
| Prediction Tracker median | Chiefs by 4.6 (std dev 2.4) | Not listed |
| Massey Ratings | Chiefs 24, Falcons 20 | 44 |
Both systems have Kansas City by four to four and a half, about a point over the market. That is not enough cushion for a lean.
How the Chiefs and Falcons got here
Kansas City is 6-2 and beat the Jets 35-12 on November 8, the game in which Mahomes was hurt on a strip sack by Jets rookie David Bailey, per SI. Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce all practiced fully Friday with no designation.
Atlanta is 3-6, per ESPN. Both rating systems project a Kansas City win by about four points in Atlanta.
Chiefs vs Falcons injury report
| Player | Team | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes, QB | Chiefs | No designation; full practice Friday (knee, right elbow) |
| Jaylon Moore, OL | Chiefs | Out (ankle) |
| Peter Woods, DL | Chiefs | Out (neck) |
| Omarr Norman-Lott, DT | Chiefs | Out (knee) |
| Mansoor Delane, CB | Chiefs | Questionable (shoulder) |
| Jaydn Ott, RB | Chiefs | Questionable (hamstring) |
| Zachariah Branch, WR | Falcons | Out (hamstring) |
| Divine Deablo, LB | Falcons | Doubtful (forearm) |
| Gervon Dexter Sr., DT | Falcons | Questionable (illness) |
| James Pearce Jr., DE | Falcons | Questionable (back) |
| Josh Woods, LB | Falcons | Questionable (ankle) |
These are Friday's final designations, per the Chiefs' official injury report. With Mahomes off the report, the quarterback question that kept us off this game earlier in the week is settled.
No lean on this game.
Our projection is Chiefs by about 4, a point over the line, short of our lean bar.
Situation: Kansas City travels after a home win with its top receivers available; Atlanta is at home and short at linebacker.
We may also have a premium play on this game. A lean here is our editorial read of the market and can differ from the premium pick. Our free plays are on the free picks page, and our full card is on premium picks.
For every Week 10 game, see our NFL Week 10 preview. Other games we broke down this week: Patriots vs Lions, Vikings vs Packers, Steelers vs Bengals on Sunday night and Chargers vs Ravens on Monday night.