Texas vs LSU Prediction and Odds: Our Lean Is on the Longhorns
LSU is a 4.5-point favorite over Texas at six of seven books on SportsbookReview as of early Saturday, November 14, 2026, with FanDuel at 5.5 and the total at 46.5 at most books. That points to about LSU 25.5, Texas 21. Kickoff is Saturday at 7:30 PM ET on ABC from Tiger Stadium.
Our lean is Texas +4.5. The Prediction Tracker median has LSU by only 1.9 and Massey Ratings has Texas winning by 2, so both systems sit on the Texas side of this number.
Texas vs LSU odds at every book
| Book | Spread | Moneyline (TEX / LSU) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | LSU -4.5 (-118) | +165 / -200 | 46.5 |
| bet365 | LSU -4.5 (-113) | +165 / -200 | 46.5 |
| DraftKings | LSU -4.5 (-115) | +170 / -205 | 46.5 |
| FanDuel | LSU -5.5 (-111) | +164 / -200 | 46.5 |
| Fanatics | LSU -4.5 (-110) | +170 / -205 | 46 |
| BetRivers | LSU -4.5 (-112) | +155 / -195 | 45.5 |
| Caesars | LSU -4.5 (-114) | +166 / -200 | 46.5 |
Six books hang LSU -4.5 and FanDuel is alone at 5.5. For Texas, FanDuel +5.5 at -115 is the best number, and DraftKings and Caesars have +4.5 at the cheapest price, -105. LSU backers should take -4.5 at Fanatics at -110.
The spread opened at LSU -4.5 on SportsbookReview, dipped to 3.5 at four books on Friday and is back at 4.5, with 54% of spread tickets on Texas. Lines move, so check the number before you bet.
Texas vs LSU prediction from the odds
That gives the market's prediction as LSU 25.5, Texas 21. Our own projection is closer to even, because both rating systems we track disagree with the market by two or more points.
| Source | Margin | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Market | LSU by 4.5 to 5.5 | 46.5 |
| Prediction Tracker median | LSU by 1.9 (std dev 3.3) | Not listed |
| Massey Ratings | Texas 28, LSU 26 | 54 |
The tracker median and Massey both land on the Texas side of the spread, which is the agreement we look for. Massey's 54-point total is also well above the market's 46.5, though a total needs more than one system to clear our bar.
How Texas and LSU got here
Texas is 7-2 after a 34-20 win over Missouri, per the AP. Arch Manning has said he is treating the trip to his home state like any other game, per WAFB.
Friday did not go to plan. The nationwide FAA ground stop held the Longhorns' charter in Austin, and the team took off just after 10 PM, per Burnt Orange Nation. That is a late arrival, not a lost night, but it adds to the risk.
LSU is 6-3 and lost 31-13 to Alabama at home on November 7. Coach Lane Kiffin called that loss unacceptable on Monday, per WAFB, and LSU's pass rush ranks third in the country with 36 sacks, per the AP.
Texas vs LSU injury report
| Player | Team | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Arch Manning, QB | Texas | No designation |
| Hero Kanu, DT | Texas | Questionable |
| Weston Davis, OT | Texas | Probable |
| Hollywood Smothers, Trevor Goosby, Nick Townsend | Texas | Out for the season (reported) |
| Whit Weeks, LB | LSU | Questionable; has missed several weeks |
| Sam Leavitt, QB | LSU | Started Nov 7 vs Alabama (AP) |
These are from the SEC's Wednesday availability report, per Burnt Orange Nation. Colin Simmons and Cam Coleman were not listed and look set to start for Texas. Weeks would be a real addition to LSU's defense if he plays, so check the final report before kickoff.
LEAN: Texas @ LSU, Texas +4.5 (-115) at FanDuel, as of Nov. 13, 2026, 11 AM ET.
Why: the Prediction Tracker median (LSU by 1.9) and Massey (Texas by 2) both sit on the Texas side, and our projection is close to a pick'em. Main risk: a night game in Tiger Stadium after a late arrival, against a pass rush that ranks third in the country in sacks.
Update, early Saturday: the line is back at 4.5, and FanDuel deals +5.5 (-115), the better number. We would not take +3.5, since the lean depends on the extra point.
This lean is a free editorial read and is not counted in our official win/loss record. We may also have a premium play on this game. A lean here is our editorial read of the market and can differ from the premium pick. Our free plays are on the free picks page, and our full card is on premium picks.
For the full Saturday board, see our college football Week 11 preview. Other games we broke down this week: USC vs Indiana, Missouri vs Georgia and Michigan vs Oregon.