NFL Playoff Predictions 2026: Projected Bracket After Week 9
Our NFL playoff predictions after Week 9 project the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers as the No. 1 seeds, based on make-the-playoffs and division prices as of Tuesday morning, November 10, 2026, through Monday's games. The projected AFC field is Buffalo, Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Denver, Kansas City, Pittsburgh and New England.
The projected NFC field is San Francisco, Chicago, the New York Giants, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Green Bay and Minnesota. The Packers replace the Seahawks from last week, and Tampa Bay replaces Carolina as the NFC South pick. Minnesota slipped to the 7 seed after losing 23-6 to Buffalo on Monday night.
NFL playoff predictions: projected bracket
Changes from last week: the Packers are in for the Seahawks, and the Buccaneers replace the Panthers as the NFC South winner. In the AFC, Cincinnati and Denver swapped the 3 and 4 seeds. After Monday night, Green Bay moved ahead of Minnesota for the NFC 6 seed.
NFL playoff odds for all 32 teams, by division
| Division | Team | Rec | Playoffs | Win div |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC East | Buffalo Bills | 7-1 | 95% | 88% |
| New England Patriots | 5-4 | 65% | 11% | |
| New York Jets | 2-7 | 2% | 1% | |
| Miami Dolphins | 1-7 | 2% | 0% | |
| AFC North | Cincinnati Bengals | 6-2 | 92% | 63% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-2 | 71% | 30% | |
| Cleveland Browns | 5-4 | 22% | 4% | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 4-5 | 16% | 3% | |
| AFC South | Jacksonville Jaguars | 6-2 | 95% | 89% |
| Houston Texans | 3-5 | 39% | 10% | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2-7 | 2% | 1% | |
| Tennessee Titans | 1-7 | 2% | 0% | |
| AFC West | Denver Broncos | 7-2 | 91% | 57% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6-2 | 91% | 41% | |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4-5 | 11% | 2% | |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0-8 | 2% | 0% | |
| NFC East | New York Giants | 5-2-1 | 67% | 60% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 4-5 | 29% | 28% | |
| Washington Commanders | 2-5-1 | 10% | 10% | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2-7 | 2% | 2% | |
| NFC North | Chicago Bears | 7-2 | 87% | 37% |
| Detroit Lions | 6-2 | 77% | 29% | |
| Green Bay Packers | 6-3 | 66% | 16% | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6-2 | 63% | 19% | |
| NFC South | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-6 | 37% | 38% |
| Carolina Panthers | 3-5 | 30% | 26% | |
| New Orleans Saints | 3-5 | 20% | 19% | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3-6 | 18% | 16% | |
| NFC West | San Francisco 49ers | 7-1 | 95% | 81% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5-4 | 51% | 9% | |
| Los Angeles Rams | 5-4 | 43% | 9% | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3-6 | 2% | 0% |
Playoff odds average the Kalshi and Polymarket make-the-playoffs midpoints on Tuesday morning, scaled so each conference adds up to seven spots (the raw prices summed to 7.07 in the AFC and 7.02 in the NFC). Division odds use Polymarket's division markets and Kalshi with the margin removed in each division.
NFL playoff predictor: biggest movers since last week
| Team | Rec | Nov 3 | Nov 10 | Change | Week 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 6-3 | 53% | 66% | +13 | Beat the Patriots 45-27 |
| New York Giants | 5-2-1 | 57% | 67% | +10 | Beat the Eagles 19-11 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6-2 | 82% | 92% | +10 | Beat the Falcons 34-17 in Madrid |
| Chicago Bears | 7-2 | 79% | 87% | +8 | Beat the Buccaneers 27-24 on Sunday night |
| Detroit Lions | 6-2 | 71% | 77% | +6 | Beat the Dolphins 19-9 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6-2 | 85% | 91% | +6 | Beat the Jets 35-12 |
| New England Patriots | 5-4 | 76% | 65% | -11 | Lost 45-27 to the Packers |
| Cleveland Browns | 5-4 | 33% | 22% | -11 | Lost 23-22 in overtime to the Saints |
| Los Angeles Rams | 5-4 | 52% | 43% | -9 | Beat the Commanders 20-13 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6-2 | 71% | 63% | -8 | Lost 23-6 to the Bills on Monday night |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3-6 | 26% | 18% | -8 | Lost 34-17 to the Bengals in Madrid |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4-5 | 19% | 11% | -8 | Lost 38-17 to the 49ers |
Green Bay's 13-point jump is the largest gain after a 45-27 win at New England. The Patriots and Browns each fell 11 points, and Minnesota dropped 8 after Monday night's 23-6 loss to Buffalo.
The NFL playoff bubble: teams between 35% and 65%
Six teams sit in the middle band. The Patriots (65%), Vikings (63%) and Buccaneers (37%, as the NFC South favorite) are in the projected field; the Seahawks (51%), Rams (43%) and Texans (39%) are chasing.
Seattle is the team to watch: 5-4 and 51%, with Sam Darnold out and Drew Lock expected to start at Las Vegas through an oblique injury. The Giants play Washington on Thursday night as 1.5 to 2.5-point favorites.
The closest NFL division races
The NFC South is the tightest race in football: Tampa Bay 38%, Carolina 26%, New Orleans 19% and Atlanta 16%. Carolina plays at New Orleans on Sunday with both teams at 3-5, and the Saints are now 1.5-point favorites.
The NFC North is next: Chicago 37%, Detroit 29%, Minnesota 19% and Green Bay 16%, with all four teams at 6-3 or better. The AFC West (Denver 57%, Kansas City 41%) and AFC North (Cincinnati 63%, Pittsburgh 30%) are two-team races. See the current playoff picture for today's seeds.