NFL Playoff Picture 2026: Seeds After Week 9, Bills and 49ers on Top
If the NFL season ended today, the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers would hold the No. 1 seeds, through Monday's Week 9 games, as of Tuesday, November 10, 2026. The Bills (7-1) beat the Minnesota Vikings 23-6 on Monday night, and the 7-2 Chicago Bears now lead the NFC North and hold the NFC 2 seed.
The AFC playoff picture right now
| Seed | Team | Rec | How they hold it | Playoffs | Week 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | 7-1 | AFC East leader, best record in the AFC | 95% | at Jets, Bills -7.5 to -8.5 |
| 2 | Denver Broncos | 7-2 | AFC West leader | 91% | Bye |
| 3 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 6-2 | AFC South leader | 95% | at Titans, Jaguars -9.5 to -10.5 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-2 | AFC North leader on tiebreakers | 71% | at Bengals, Bengals -3.5 |
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 6-2 | Wild card | 91% | at Falcons, Chiefs -3.5 |
| 6 | Cincinnati Bengals | 6-2 | Wild card | 92% | vs Steelers, Bengals -3.5 |
| 7 | New England Patriots | 5-4 | Wild card | 65% | at Lions, Lions -2.5 |
First out: the Cleveland Browns (5-4, 22% to make the playoffs) after a 23-22 overtime loss to New Orleans. The Las Vegas Raiders and Baltimore Ravens are both 4-5, and the Houston Texans (3-5) carry 39% playoff odds, the best of any AFC team outside the field.
The NFC playoff picture right now
| Seed | Team | Rec | How they hold it | Playoffs | Week 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco 49ers | 7-1 | NFC West leader, tied for the best record in the NFL | 95% | at Cowboys, 49ers -3.5 to -4.5 |
| 2 | Chicago Bears | 7-2 | NFC North leader | 87% | Bye |
| 3 | New York Giants | 5-2-1 | NFC East leader | 67% | vs Commanders, Giants -1.5 to -2.5 |
| 4 | Carolina Panthers | 3-5 | NFC South leader on tiebreakers | 30% | at Saints, Saints -1.5 |
| 5 | Detroit Lions | 6-2 | Wild card, beat Minnesota head to head | 77% | vs Patriots, Lions -2.5 |
| 6 | Minnesota Vikings | 6-2 | Wild card | 63% | at Packers, Packers -4.5 |
| 7 | Green Bay Packers | 6-3 | Wild card | 66% | vs Vikings, Packers -4.5 |
First out: the Seattle Seahawks (5-4, 51%) and Los Angeles Rams (5-4, 43%). The Dallas Cowboys (4-5) are 29% after beating the Colts 27-23. The Buccaneers (3-6) are 37% because the market still makes them the NFC South favorite.
Who moved in the NFL playoff picture this week
No team moved in or out of the field in Week 9. The Jaguars went from the AFC 4 seed to the 3 seed after a 33-10 win at Baltimore. In the NFC, Monday night moved the Bears up to the 2 seed and dropped the Vikings to the 6 seed behind Detroit.
| Team | Rec | Nov 3 | Nov 10 | Change | Week 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 6-3 | 53% | 66% | +13 | Beat the Patriots 45-27 |
| New York Giants | 5-2-1 | 57% | 67% | +10 | Beat the Eagles 19-11 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6-2 | 82% | 92% | +10 | Beat the Falcons 34-17 in Madrid |
| Chicago Bears | 7-2 | 79% | 87% | +8 | Beat the Buccaneers 27-24 on Sunday night |
| Detroit Lions | 6-2 | 71% | 77% | +6 | Beat the Dolphins 19-9 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6-2 | 85% | 91% | +6 | Beat the Jets 35-12 |
| New England Patriots | 5-4 | 76% | 65% | -11 | Lost 45-27 to the Packers |
| Cleveland Browns | 5-4 | 33% | 22% | -11 | Lost 23-22 in overtime to the Saints |
| Los Angeles Rams | 5-4 | 52% | 43% | -9 | Beat the Commanders 20-13 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6-2 | 71% | 63% | -8 | Lost 23-6 to the Bills on Monday night |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3-6 | 26% | 18% | -8 | Lost 34-17 to the Bengals in Madrid |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4-5 | 19% | 11% | -8 | Lost 38-17 to the 49ers |
The Packers gained the most after a 45-27 win at New England, and the Patriots and Browns lost the most, 11 points each. Minnesota fell from 71% to 63% after losing to Buffalo on Monday night.
What Monday night changed: Bills 23, Vikings 6
Buffalo beat Minnesota 23-6 as a 3.5-point favorite to move to 7-1. The Bills keep the AFC 1 seed, a half game ahead of the 7-2 Broncos.
The Vikings fell to 6-2, a half game behind the 7-2 Bears in the NFC North, and dropped from the 2 seed to the 6 seed. Carson Wentz started with Kyler Murray out. Every Week 9 result is in our NFL Week 9 recap.
In the picture now, doubted by the market
The Carolina Panthers hold the NFC 4 seed at 3-5 but are only 30% to make the playoffs and 28% to win the division. The Buccaneers (3-6) are the NFC South favorite at 35%, and all four South teams are between 18% and 35%.
The New England Patriots hold the AFC 7 seed at 5-4 with 62% playoff odds, the lowest of any AFC team in the field. They play the Lions in Munich on Sunday as 2.5-point underdogs.
Outside the picture, backed by the market
The Seattle Seahawks are out today at 5-4 but are 51% to make it. Sam Darnold is out for their Week 10 trip to Las Vegas, and Drew Lock is expected to start through an oblique injury. The Rams (5-4) are 43% and rank sixth in our title-odds rankings.
The Houston Texans (3-5) are 39% after a 44-22 win over the Chargers, ahead of every other AFC team outside the field.
Every team in the hunt
| Team | Rec | Playoffs | Last week | Win div | Week 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 7-1 | 95% | 91% | 81% | at Cowboys, 49ers -3.5 to -4.5 |
| Buffalo Bills | 7-1 | 95% | 94% | 88% | at Jets, Bills -7.5 to -8.5 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6-2 | 95% | 92% | 89% | at Titans, Jaguars -9.5 to -10.5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6-2 | 92% | 82% | 63% | vs Steelers, Bengals -3.5 |
| Denver Broncos | 7-2 | 91% | 85% | 57% | Bye |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6-2 | 91% | 85% | 41% | at Falcons, Chiefs -3.5 |
| Chicago Bears | 7-2 | 87% | 79% | 37% | Bye |
| Detroit Lions | 6-2 | 77% | 71% | 29% | vs Patriots, Lions -2.5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-2 | 71% | 73% | 30% | at Bengals, Bengals -3.5 |
| New York Giants | 5-2-1 | 67% | 57% | 60% | vs Commanders, Giants -1.5 to -2.5 |
| Green Bay Packers | 6-3 | 66% | 53% | 16% | vs Vikings, Packers -4.5 |
| New England Patriots | 5-4 | 65% | 76% | 11% | at Lions, Lions -2.5 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6-2 | 63% | 71% | 19% | at Packers, Packers -4.5 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5-4 | 51% | 54% | 9% | at Raiders, Seahawks -3.5 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 5-4 | 43% | 52% | 9% | at Cardinals, Rams -8.5 to -9.5 |
| Houston Texans | 3-5 | 39% | 34% | 10% | at Browns, Texans -4.5 to -5 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-6 | 37% | 33% | 38% | Bye |
| Carolina Panthers | 3-5 | 30% | 33% | 26% | at Saints, Saints -1.5 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 4-5 | 29% | 32% | 28% | vs 49ers, 49ers -3.5 to -4.5 |
| Cleveland Browns | 5-4 | 22% | 33% | 4% | vs Texans, Texans -4.5 to -5 |
| New Orleans Saints | 3-5 | 20% | 18% | 19% | vs Panthers, Saints -1.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3-6 | 18% | 26% | 16% | vs Chiefs, Chiefs -3.5 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 4-5 | 16% | 15% | 3% | vs Chargers, Ravens -4.5 to -5.5 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4-5 | 11% | 19% | 2% | vs Seahawks, Seahawks -3.5 |
| Washington Commanders | 2-5-1 | 10% | 17% | 10% | at Giants, Giants -1.5 to -2.5 |
Teams with at least a 10% playoff chance, sorted by playoff odds. "Last week" is our November 3 number.
Week 10 games that move the NFL playoff picture
Panthers at Saints (Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, FOX) decides who leads the NFC South, since both teams are 3-5; New Orleans is now a 1.5-point favorite after Carolina opened favored. Vikings at Packers (1:00 PM ET, FOX) is an NFC North game between two teams in the field, with Green Bay -4.5.
Steelers at Bengals on Sunday night (8:20 PM ET, NBC) is a fight for the AFC North, with Cincinnati -3.5. Texans at Browns matters for the AFC 7 seed chase, and Seahawks at Raiders and Commanders at Giants on Thursday night round out the list. Full lines are in our Week 10 preview.
How the NFL playoff picture works
Seven teams per conference make the playoffs. The four division winners are seeded 1 to 4 by record, and the three best non-division winners are seeded 5 to 7, so a division winner with a losing record still hosts a playoff game.
Only the No. 1 seed in each conference gets a bye. In the wild-card round, 2 hosts 7, 3 hosts 6 and 4 hosts 5. Ties in record are broken by head-to-head, division record and other NFL tiebreakers.
Where the playoff odds come from
Records and seeds are from NFL.com conference standings, checked against CBS Sports standings, through Monday's games. Playoff odds average the make-the-playoffs midpoints on Kalshi's NFL playoff market and Polymarket, Tuesday morning, November 10, 2026.
The raw prices add up to 7.07 spots in the AFC and 7.02 in the NFC, so we scale each conference to seven. Division odds are the same two markets with the margin removed within each division. Prices move every week, so treat this as a snapshot. Our free plays are on the free picks page.