UConn is a 7.5-point favorite over Michigan for Friday night's national championship rematch at TD Garden in Boston, with a total of 141.5 to 142.5, as of Friday, November 6, 2026, 12:15 PM ET. That line implies a final around UConn 74.5, Michigan 67. The spread has moved two points toward UConn since Wednesday and the total has dropped five. Michigan beat UConn 69-63 in the 2026 title game in April, and both teams won their openers on Monday. Here is our Michigan vs UConn prediction from the odds, the ratings and the matchup.
Where it standsNo. 4 UConn is -7.5 at six of seven books and -6.5 at bet365, with the moneyline at UConn -325 and Michigan +260 at DraftKings. Two rating systems we track have the game close to even: T-Rank has UConn by 0.4 and Massey has Michigan by 2. That gap is why our lean is on No. 16 Michigan with the points.
-7.5
UConn spread
-6.5 at bet365
141.5
Total
up to 142.5 at BetRivers
73.3%
UConn win chance
DraftKings, vig removed
69-63
April title game
Michigan won
Michigan vs UConn odds at every book
Fri Nov 6, 8:00 PM ETTNT
Spread
UConn -7.5
Opened -5.5; -6.5 at bet365
Moneyline
UConn -325
Michigan +260 at DraftKings
Total
141.5
Implied UConn 74.5, Michigan 67
Michigan 26.7%Win probability, vig removedUConn 73.3%
Win probability from the DraftKings -325/+260 pair with the margin removed. The implied score uses UConn -7.5 and 141.5.
Michigan vs UConn lines, as of November 6, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
| Book | Spread | Moneyline (MICH / CONN) | Total |
|---|
| DraftKings | UConn -7.5 (-110), Michigan +7.5 (-110) | +260 / -325 | 141.5 |
|---|
| Fanatics | UConn -7.5 (-110) | +250 / -320 | 142 |
|---|
| Caesars | UConn -7.5 (-110) | +250 / -319 | 142 |
|---|
| Opener (SportsbookReview) | UConn -5.5 | +240 / -300 | 146.5 (Wednesday) |
|---|
Lines are from SportsbookReview's odds board, checked against The Odds API's DraftKings feed; both showed UConn -5.5 and 146.5 on Wednesday. By Friday noon all seven books had posted and moved to UConn -7.5, with the total down to 141.5 at DraftKings and FanDuel and 142 to 142.5 at Fanatics, Caesars and BetRivers. The best Michigan number is +7.5 at -110 at DraftKings, FanDuel and Caesars (bet365 has only +6.5), and the best moneyline is Michigan +275 at bet365. Our free plays for the day are on our free picks page.
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Michigan vs UConn prediction from the odds
1
Start with the total
141.5 points is the market's estimate of combined scoring, down five from Wednesday.
2
Add the spread to find the favorite
(141.5 + 7.5) / 2 = 74.5 points for UConn.
3
Subtract for the underdog
141.5 - 74.5 = 67 points for Michigan.
4
Check it against the moneyline
UConn -325 and Michigan +260 at DraftKings work out to 73.3% and 26.7% once the margin is removed, which fits a 7.5-point favorite.
The market says UConn 74.5, Michigan 67. The two rating systems we use as a check see a closer game. Bart Torvik's T-Rank projects UConn 72, Michigan 71 (UConn 52% to win) and ranks the teams 12th and 14th. Massey Ratings projects Michigan 74, UConn 72 (Michigan 56%) and has Michigan 5th and UConn 10th. Both are 7 or more points friendlier to Michigan than the spread, and neither has moved since Wednesday while the market moved two points the other way.
How Michigan and UConn got here
| Team | Opener | Result | Coach |
|---|
| Michigan (1-0) | vs Oakland, Nov 2 | W 84-68 | Mike Boynton Jr. (1st season) |
|---|
| UConn (1-0) | vs Gardner-Webb, Nov 2 | W 86-46 | Dan Hurley |
|---|
Michigan won the 2026 national championship, beating UConn 69-63 in Indianapolis on April 6. Dusty May left for the Dallas Mavericks in June, and Michigan promoted Mike Boynton Jr., first as interim coach and then on a two-year deal in July. Michigan opened its title defense with an 84-68 win over Oakland at Crisler Center: Roddy Gayle Jr. and Trey McKenney scored 17 each, J.P. Estrella had 15 points and 12 rebounds, and Elliot Cadeau, the Final Four Most Outstanding Player, is back at point guard.
UConn opened with an 86-46 win over Gardner-Webb in Hartford on Monday, Dan Hurley's 200th win at UConn. The Huskies start the season ranked fourth in the AP poll, 12 spots above Michigan, which is a big part of why the market prices them as a near-touchdown favorite on a neutral floor.
Michigan vs UConn injury report
Michigan center Moustapha Thiam, the Cincinnati transfer who averaged 12.8 points, 7.1 rebounds and 1.6 blocks a game last season, missed the opener with an illness, returned to practice Wednesday, and coach Mike Boynton Jr. said this week that the expectation is that he plays. Michigan gave up 21 offensive rebounds to Oakland without him. We found no injury news on UConn's side as of Friday, November 6. College teams do not file NFL-style injury reports, so treat any late absence as a reason to recheck the line.
Our other game breakdowns this week are Cavaliers vs Thunder and Senators vs Sabres, both on Wednesday night.
Our leanLEAN: Michigan +7.5 (-110, DraftKings, FanDuel and Caesars) @ UConn (neutral site, TD Garden), as of November 6, 2026, 12:15 PM ET. T-Rank makes it UConn by 0.4 and Massey makes it Michigan by 2, so both rating systems we track come in 7 or more points friendlier to Michigan than the spread, and the defending champions get points against a team they beat in April. The main risk: early-season ratings still lean on last season and preseason priors, the Boston crowd should favor UConn, and the market has moved two points toward the Huskies since Wednesday, the kind of move that has beaten our models before. We may also have a premium play on this game. A lean here is our editorial read of the market and can differ from the premium pick. This lean is a free editorial read and is not counted in our official win/loss record. Our free plays are on the
free picks page and our handicapped plays are on the
premium picks page.
Michigan vs UConn questions
Who is favored in Michigan vs UConn?+
UConn is a 7.5-point favorite over Michigan as of November 6, 2026, with a moneyline of -325 at DraftKings. Michigan is +260.
What is the Michigan vs UConn prediction?+
The odds imply about UConn 74.5, Michigan 67. T-Rank projects UConn 72-71 and Massey projects Michigan 74-72; our lean is Michigan +7.5, which is not part of our official record.
What time is Michigan vs UConn and what channel is it on?+
Michigan vs UConn tips at 8:00 PM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, at TD Garden in Boston, on TNT.
What is the total for Michigan vs UConn?+
The total is 141.5 at DraftKings and FanDuel and up to 142.5 at BetRivers as of November 6, 2026, down from 146.5 on Wednesday.
Did Michigan beat UConn in the national championship?+
Yes. Michigan beat UConn 69-63 on April 6, 2026, in Indianapolis to win the national title, and Friday is the rematch.
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