NCAA Basketball Championship Odds 2026-27: Duke Slips, Michigan State Surges
Duke is still the favorite in the NCAA basketball championship odds, but the Blue Devils drifted to +500 to +600 across four sportsbooks after losing to Michigan State, as of Thursday night, November 12, 2026. With the margin removed from the full board, that is about a 9.7% chance, down from 10.6% on Sunday.
Florida (+600 to +650, 8.7%) is second. Michigan State made the biggest jump on the board, from +1,800 to +2,000 out to +1,200 to +1,300 (4.8%), after beating Duke 79-73 at the United Center on Tuesday.
Kansas moved from +2,800 to +3,000 to +1,400 to +1,800 after its 89-69 win over Kentucky in the same doubleheader. Kalshi still rates the top two higher than the books, with Duke at about 13.5 cents and Florida at 12.5.
Selection Sunday is March 14, 2027, the 76-team bracket opens March 16 and 17 in Dayton and Wichita, and the Final Four is April 3 and 5 at Ford Field in Detroit.
NCAA basketball championship odds 2026-27
The table is our own snapshot of VegasInsider's full futures board, read on Thursday night, November 12, across bet365, BetMGM, Caesars and FanDuel. We left out DraftKings again because several of its prices sat far from the other four.
The fair column takes each team's middle price across those books and removes the margin across the whole board of 361 priced teams, which added up to about 159.1%. The Kalshi column is the midpoint of the bid and ask on Kalshi's 2027 champion market on Thursday night, a second, independent read.
| Team | Range | Best price | Fair Nov. 12 | Fair Nov. 8 | Kalshi (mid) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Duke | +500 to +600 | +600 (Caesars) | 9.7% | 10.6% | 13.5¢ |
| 2. Florida | +600 to +650 | +650 (Caesars, FanDuel) | 8.7% | 8.8% | 12.5¢ |
| 3. UConn | +1,000 to +1,100 | +1,100 (BetMGM) | 5.7% | 5.6% | 9.4¢ |
| 4. Michigan State | +1,200 to +1,300 | +1,300 (BetMGM) | 4.8% | 3.1% | 8.1¢ |
| 5. Illinois | +1,200 to +1,500 | +1,500 (BetMGM, Caesars) | 4.4% | 4.9% | 8.1¢ |
| 6. Kansas | +1,400 to +1,800 | +1,800 (bet365) | 3.6% | 2.1% | 5.3¢ |
| 7. Texas | +2,000 to +2,500 | +2,500 (FanDuel) | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.1¢ |
| 8. Texas Tech | +2,000 to +2,200 | +2,200 (Three books) | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4¢ |
| 9. Houston | +2,200 to +2,500 | +2,500 (bet365, BetMGM) | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.6¢ |
| 10. Louisville | +2,000 to +2,500 | +2,500 (Three books) | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8¢ |
| 11. Arizona | +2,000 to +2,500 | +2,500 (Three books) | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.9¢ |
| 12. Virginia | +2,500 to +2,800 | +2,800 (Caesars) | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.8¢ |
| 13. UCLA | +2,500 to +3,000 | +3,000 (bet365, Caesars) | 2.1% | 1.6% | 4¢ |
| 14. St. John's | +2,800 to +3,000 | +3,000 (Three books) | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.5¢ |
| 15. Gonzaga | +2,500 to +3,500 | +3,500 (BetMGM, FanDuel) | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9¢ |
| 16. Arkansas | +3,300 to +5,000 | +5,000 (FanDuel) | 1.6% | 2.6% | 1.3¢ |
| 17. Vanderbilt | +3,500 to +5,000 | +5,000 (Caesars) | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.5¢ |
| 18. Tennessee | +3,500 to +5,000 | +5,000 (FanDuel) | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.1¢ |
| 19. Miami (FL) | +4,000 to +5,000 | +5,000 (FanDuel) | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.3¢ |
| 20. LSU | +4,000 to +5,000 | +5,000 (Caesars, FanDuel) | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4¢ |
| 21. Kentucky | +3,500 to +6,000 | +6,000 (Caesars) | 1.3% | 1.7% | 0.8¢ |
| 22. USC | +4,000 to +6,000 | +6,000 (Caesars) | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3¢ |
| 23. Iowa State | +4,000 to +6,000 | +6,000 (Caesars) | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1¢ |
| 24. Alabama | +5,000 | +5,000 (All four) | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4¢ |
| 25. Indiana | +5,000 to +6,500 | +6,500 (FanDuel) | 1.0% | Under 1.2% | 1¢ |
Shopping the number matters more in college basketball futures than almost anywhere else, because the board is so long. Caesars had the best price, alone or tied, on 15 of the top 25 teams, and FanDuel on 13. Our free plays are on the free picks page, and the sportsbooks page lists where to compare prices.
The favorites to win the 2027 national championship
Duke (+500 to +600)
Duke lost 79-73 to Michigan State at the United Center on November 10, its first loss of the season, and is 2-1. The books pushed the Blue Devils from +480 to +500 out to +500 to +600, with Caesars now best at +600, and the fair number fell from 10.6% to 9.7%.
Kalshi has Duke at about 13.5 cents, down from 15 to 16 on Sunday. Our Duke vs Michigan State page has the line and the result.
Michigan State (+1,200 to +1,300)
Michigan State is 3-0 after the win over Duke and was the biggest mover on the board. The Spartans went from +1,800 to +2,000 to +1,200 to +1,300, a 4.8% fair chance against 3.1% on Sunday, and Kalshi has them at about 8 cents, level with Illinois.
Florida (+600 to +650)
Florida beat No. 14 Miami 77-67 in its opener on November 2 and Jacksonville 88-57 on November 5, per CBS Sports. The Gators are 8.7% fair, almost unchanged, and Caesars and FanDuel still have the best number at +650. Kalshi has Florida at about 12.5 cents, a point behind Duke.
UConn (+1,000 to +1,100)
UConn beat Michigan 85-77 at TD Garden on November 6 in the rematch of last season's title game, per the Boston Globe and Michigan's athletic site, with Braylon Mullins scoring 23. UConn's fair chance has risen from 5.1% on opening day to 5.7%, and Kalshi has the Huskies at about 9.4 cents.
Our Michigan vs UConn page has the line and the result.
Illinois (+1,200 to +1,500)
Illinois won its first two games 120-45 and 112-70, per CBS Sports, yet the books drifted the Illini from +1,000 to +1,200 out to +1,200 to +1,500 and the fair number slipped from 4.9% to 4.4%. Kalshi has them at about 8 cents, the biggest book-to-market gap in the top five.
Who moved in the college basketball title odds this week
| Team | Fair Nov. 8 | Fair Nov. 12 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State | 3.1% | 4.8% | Beat No. 2 Duke 79-73 on Nov. 10 |
| Kansas | 2.1% | 3.6% | Beat Kentucky 89-69 on Nov. 10 |
| UCLA | 1.6% | 2.1% | Range now +2,500 to +3,000 |
| Virginia | 2.1% | 2.4% | Range now +2,500 to +2,800 |
| Duke | 10.6% | 9.7% | Lost to Michigan State |
| Arizona | 3.0% | 2.4% | Range now +2,000 to +2,500 |
| Kentucky | 1.7% | 1.3% | Lost to Kansas by 20 |
| Arkansas | 2.6% | 1.6% | FanDuel out to +5,000 |
The Champions Classic did most of the moving. Michigan State gained more than a point and a half of fair chance, and Kansas about the same after Tre White scored 30 in the 89-69 win over Kentucky. Our Kansas vs Kentucky page has the result.
Arkansas was the biggest faller outside Chicago, from 2.6% to 1.6%. Michigan dropped out of our top 25 at +8,000 at all four books and about 1 cent on Kalshi. Texas Tech ticked up to 2.7% with JT Toppin still out after the torn ACL reported November 3.
Where the books, Kalshi and Polymarket disagree
Kalshi still rates the favorites higher than the sportsbooks do. Duke is about 13.5 cents against 9.7% fair, Florida 12.5 against 8.7% and UConn 9.4 against 5.7%. Michigan State and Illinois both sit near 8 cents, against 4.8% and 4.4%.
A bettor who likes a favorite gets the better number at a sportsbook; one who likes a long shot usually gets it on Kalshi's 2027 champion market.
Polymarket's 2027 champion market is still thin, with about $115,000 traded on Thursday night, and it had Duke at 15.5%, Florida 14.5%, UConn 10%, Illinois 9.5% and Michigan State 7.8%. Our Polymarket shows how to compare the two with the books.
How national championship futures work
A price of +500 means a $100 bet returns $500 in profit if the team wins the title, which implies about a 16.7% chance before the margin. College basketball boards carry a heavy margin because hundreds of teams are listed, so the fair chance is lower than the raw implied number.
Futures tie up your money until April, and prices move with every result. Our futures betting guide covers the basics, and our guide to betting college basketball covers spreads, totals and the tournament.