Bears vs Falcons Prediction and Odds: Week 6 2026
The Chicago Bears are 1.5-point favorites at the Atlanta Falcons at every major book as of Friday night, October 16, 2026, and the total is 51.5 to 52. Caleb Williams (hamstring) is officially questionable after three full practices, with a final decision expected Saturday. Michael Penix Jr. (ribs) has no injury designation and will start for Atlanta. Turn the DraftKings numbers into a score and the betting market's Bears vs Falcons prediction is Chicago 26.5, Atlanta 25.
Bears vs Falcons odds at every book
Here is the board for the Chicago Bears at the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, October 18, 2026, at 1:00 PM ET on FOX at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, as of Friday night, October 16, 2026. Every book has Chicago -1.5, with the price on the Bears running from +100 at DraftKings and Fanatics to -105 at FanDuel and BetRivers. The total is 51.5 at five books and 52 at BetMGM and Fanatics. Compare where you have accounts on our sportsbooks page.
| Book | Spread | Moneyline (CHI / ATL) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | Bears -1.5 (-102) | -112 / -105 | 52 |
| bet365 | Bears -1.5 (-103) | -116 / -104 | 51.5 |
| DraftKings | Bears -1.5 (+100) | -118 / -102 | 51.5 |
| FanDuel | Bears -1.5 (-105) | -118 / +100 | 51.5 |
| Fanatics | Bears -1.5 (+100) | -115 / -105 | 52 |
| BetRivers | Bears -1.5 (-105) | -117 / -105 | 51.5 |
| Caesars | Bears -1.5 (-102) | -117 / -102 | 51.5 |
Chicago opened -2 and is -1.5 now, while the total is up three and a half points from the 48 opener, the biggest total move on the Week 6 board. That rise reflects Penix being cleared to start: Atlanta has scored 34.3 points per game with Penix this season and 8.0 without him, per CBS Sports. Williams' status is the swing factor left, and this line can still move on Saturday.
Bears vs Falcons prediction from the betting odds
The market sees a near pick'em with a lot of running. Chicago leads the NFL with 866 rushing yards and Atlanta is second with 834, per Pro Football Reference. At 1.5 the number sits under the field goal: any Chicago win of 2 or more covers, and a 1-point Bears win or any Atlanta win covers Falcons +1.5.
How the Bears and Falcons got here
Both teams have scored 119 points in five games. Chicago is 3-2 and has allowed only 96 points, fifth-fewest in the league, but it has used three starting quarterbacks and did not score an offensive touchdown in the 31-7 loss at Green Bay. Atlanta is 2-3: 0-2 with Cooper Rush starting and 2-1 since Penix returned in Week 3, both wins by 21 points, before the 30-23 overtime loss to Baltimore in which the Falcons blew a 23-15 lead in the final minute.
| Week | Bears | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | W 59-37 at Panthers | L 13-20 at Steelers |
| 2 | L 3-9 vs Vikings | L 3-34 vs Panthers |
| 3 | W 27-7 vs Eagles | W 35-14 at Packers |
| 4 | W 23-12 vs Jets | W 45-24 at Saints |
| 5 | L 7-31 at Packers | L 23-30 (OT) vs Ravens |
Chicago: three quarterbacks in five weeks
Caleb Williams hurt his hamstring in the fourth quarter of the Week 2 loss to Minnesota and has missed three games. Case Keenum started and won in Week 3, and Tyson Bagent started Weeks 4 and 5 before being benched at Green Bay. Bagent has 409 yards, no touchdowns and three interceptions in three games; Williams had 407 passing yards, two touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns in his two. Williams then practiced fully Wednesday through Friday and goes into the weekend listed as questionable, with the team expected to decide on Saturday.
Atlanta: Penix and the ribs
Michael Penix Jr. has thrown for 719 yards with three touchdowns and one interception since returning in Week 3, averaging 9.3 yards per attempt, per CBS Sports. He was sacked with 27 seconds left in regulation against Baltimore, came back for one play and then sat out overtime, when Tua Tagovailoa's pass was intercepted by Kyle Hamilton to end Atlanta's last possession. Penix had imaging on Monday, and Kevin Stefanski declined to say what it showed. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported the injury is not considered serious, and Penix practiced fully this week and carries no designation for Sunday.
Bears vs Falcons injury report
From the official Friday, October 16 injury reports, confirmed by ESPN, CBS Sports and Bleacher Nation. Williams practiced fully Wednesday, Thursday and Friday but is listed as questionable; he has missed three straight games since hurting his hamstring in Week 2 and said he has one more test to pass, with a decision expected Saturday. Penix carries no designation and will start. Chicago also rules out two linebackers, T.J. Edwards and Keyshaun Elliott, and edge rusher Montez Sweat is suspended.
| Player | Team | Pos | Friday status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | Questionable (hamstring) |
| T.J. Edwards | CHI | LB | Out (hamstring) |
| Keyshaun Elliott | CHI | LB | Out (quad) |
| Kyle Monangai | CHI | RB | Out (thumb, toe) |
| Dayo Odeyingbo | CHI | DL | Out (quad) |
| Tyrique Stevenson | CHI | CB | Questionable (hip) |
| Kyler Gordon | CHI | CB | Questionable (calf) |
| Montez Sweat | CHI | DL | Suspended |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | QB | No designation, starts |
| C.J. Henderson | ATL | CB | Out (groin) |
| Za'Darius Smith | ATL | DE | No designation (neck) |
Bears vs Falcons head-to-head
The Bears lead the all-time series 16-14 and won the last meeting, 37-17 at Soldier Field on December 31, 2023. The teams have split the last four games.
| Date | Site | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2023 | Chicago | Bears 37, Falcons 17 |
| Nov 20, 2022 | Atlanta | Falcons 27, Bears 24 |
| Sep 27, 2020 | Atlanta | Bears 30, Falcons 26 |
| Sep 10, 2017 | Chicago | Falcons 23, Bears 17 |
| Oct 12, 2014 | Atlanta | Bears 27, Falcons 13 |